Capability
Schedule Risk Analysis
Test duration uncertainty on a logic-linked programme so completion exposure is visible before it is treated as a single date.
C02 — The problem
The technical problem
Deterministic programmes hide duration uncertainty. A P50 or ‘most likely’ date is presented as the plan, while weather, access, interfaces, and productivity sit in a separate register that never touches remaining duration.
Schedule Risk Analysis is a planning capability: duration ranges (and, where the model supports it, existence risk on activities) applied to the logic so leadership can see a range of completion outcomes and which activities drive the tail. This assignment is the schedule-side analysis. Joint cost-and-schedule quantitative models are a separate risk assignment.
C03 — Engagement
When this capability is needed
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01
Before baseline approval
The date is sensitive and a single-point estimate is not enough.
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02
Major uncertainty
Weather windows, shutdowns, or interface dates dominate remaining work.
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03
Governance / sanction
A range is required alongside the deterministic programme.
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04
Recovery comparison
Options need risk-adjusted dates, not only crash calendars.
C04 — Scope / method
How the work is approached
Schedule-focused quantitative treatment of duration uncertainty on a defined programme. Cost-only quantitative risk, qualitative registers, and Monte Carlo cost models are separate assignments.
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01
Fix the deterministic base
A programme that can be calculated, not a broken file.
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02
Agree uncertainty inputs
Duration ranges and discrete risks mapped to activities, with sources.
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03
Run the schedule risk model
Iterations sufficient to describe the completion distribution.
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04
Identify drivers
Which remaining activities and risks move the tail.
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05
Report the range
Dates at agreed percentiles, with the deterministic date shown for comparison.
C05 — Outputs
Typical deliverables
| Output | What it contains |
|---|---|
| Schedule risk analysis report | Method, inputs, and completion distribution. |
| Driver list | Activities and risks that move the result. |
| Input register | Ranges and assumptions used. |
| Comparison to the deterministic date | So the single-point plan is not quietly replaced. |
C06 — Decision value
What this work is used to decide
Whether to accept a completion date as a planning target, hold contingency in time, or change sequence before locking the baseline. The analysis does not guarantee a percentile date.
C08 — Project environments
Relevant project environments
C09 — Who we support
Who commonly needs this capability
C10 — Boundaries
Important distinctions
Schedule risk analysis does not guarantee outcomes and is not a substitute for a live risk register or for commercial contingency decisions.
C11 — Next step
Discuss your project
If this is the technical problem you are facing, talk to Value Construction about the work, the records required, and what you would receive. Outcomes are not guaranteed.